Question:

What will replace uranium in nuclear power stations, for which there are currently 40 to 50 years of recoverable reserves?

Answer:

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Nuclear Association (WNA) estimate that there are currently a little over 2 million metric tons of uranium ore reserves recoverable at a cost of less than $40/kg. This corresponds to 30 years of operations of current reactors. However, these resources are underestimated, since there is currently no significant exploration effort in view of the size of available stocks. At an accepted production cost of $130 – which would not be prohibitive, given that uranium represents only 5% of the cost of nuclear-generated electricity – there would then be enough reserves for 60 years. Uranium can be replaced in nuclear fuel by other fissile elements, such as plutonium, which does not however occur naturally. The only source of plutonium is from decommissioned nuclear weapons or from the treatment of used fuel from current reactors. It is already used in this form and mixed with uranium to make "Mox", which slows the consumption of current reserves. Another possibility is to optimize the use of uranium 238 (whose fertile nuclei are only slightly fissile) by bombarding it with fast neutrons: this is the principle underlying fast breeder reactors, whose development is currently on hold but which would allow a factor 50 increase of the fissile materials used.